نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی
نویسندگان
1 Agronomy, Faculty of Crop Sciences, Sari Agricultural Sciences and Natural Resources University
2 گروه زراعت، دانشکده علوم زراعی، دانشگاه علوم کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی ساری
3 گروه زراعت، دانشکده تولید گیاهی، دانشگاه علوم کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی گرگان
4 دانشآموخته دکتری گروه زراعت، دانشکده تولید گیاهی، دانشگاه علوم کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی گرگان
چکیده
کلیدواژهها
موضوعات
عنوان مقاله [English]
نویسندگان [English]
Background and purpose: Climate change is one of the most important threats to humanity today, which lack of attention causes many problems and irreparable damages. On the other hand, corn (Zea mays) is considered one of the most important cereals in the world; that climate change causes the yield of this plant to decrease. While, it is possible to predict the future climate conditions and its impact on the corn plant through modeling, and considering the fact that the impact of future climate changes on the corn plant has not been investigated in a standard and serious manner with the SSM-iCrop2 model; The purpose of this study was to investigate the effects of climate change on the corn plant using the above model.
Materials and methods: The statistics and information of meteorological stations of the basic period, including daily values of maximum and minimum temperature and rainfall of the desired stations, were obtained from the statistical information center of the National Meteorological Organization. To obtain the characteristics of the soil of the studied areas, the method of preparing general soil profiles was used, and to simulate the effects of climate change on the corn plant, the SSM-iCrop2 model was used. In this simulation, the average amount of CO2 for the past period was 360 ppm and for the period of 2025 under the emission scenario of 4.5 and 8.5 was considered as 423 and 432 ppm and for the period of 2055 under these two emission scenarios as 499 and 571 ppm, respectively.
Findings: Based on the results of the average temperature changes in the period of 2055 under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, will increase by 15 and 19%, respectively, and in the period of 2025 under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, will increase by 8 and 9%, respectively, compared to the base period. The efficiency of using radiation will also increase in most stations. The results indicated a reduction in the length of the maturity period under both scenarios in both periods; this reduction is more evident in the period of 2055 compared to the period of 2025. The amount of water productivity in the period of 2055 has decreased due to the increase of CO2 and temperature; while in the period of 2025, it has shown an increase under both emission scenarios. Also, yield was reduced.
Conclusion: The output of the models shows the increase in temperature and the amount of CO2 in the future climate conditions, which will reach a higher rate in the period of 2055 compared to the period of 2025; reduces the length of the maturity period in both periods. On the other hand, the shorter the length of the maturity period, the faster the grain fills up and causes a decrease in the weight of the grain, which ultimately leads to a decrease in yield. The results indicate a decrease in evaporation and transpiration in all stations and an increase in radiation. The amount of yield has also decreased in most of the stations despite the increase in the efficiency of using radiation, which is not far from expected due to the increase in temperature and CO2 level; and considering that the increase in temperature and CO2 is greater in the period of 2055; The amount of yield and the length of the maturity period will decrease more intensively in the period of 2055.
کلیدواژهها [English]
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