سازگاری به کم‌آبی در تولید گیاهی کشور از طریق بهینه‌سازی الگوی کشت

نوع مقاله : مقاله کامل علمی- پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 عضو هیأت علمی گروه زراعت، دانشکده تولید گیاهی، دانشگاه علوم کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی گرگان،

2 استاد ، مدعوگروه اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشکده مدیریت کشاورزی، دانشگاه علوم کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی گرگان،

3 گروه اقتصاد، دانشگاه علوم کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی گرگان

4 دانشجوی دکتری اگرواکولوژی ، گروه زراعت، دانشکده تولید گیاهی، دانشگاه علوم کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی گرگان،

چکیده

سابقه و هدف: اضافه برداشت آب در کشور ایران، مانند سرطانی است که در جان طبیعت کشور ریشه دوانده و هر روز فشار بیشتری بر آن وارد می‌کند. بنابراین بایستی برای کاهش این اضافه برداشت آب، برنامه‌ریزی و اقدامات مؤثری در سطح کشور صورت پذیرد. به همین منظور در مطالعه حاضر فرض شده است که برداشت آب از منابع سطحی و زیرزمینی برای کشاورزی در کشور از مقدار فعلی 86 میلیارد متر مکعب در سال به 62 میلیارد متر مکعب در سال (حجم قابل‌برنامه‌ریزی اعلام شده وزارت نیرو) کاهش پیدا کند. سپس با استفاده از برنامه‌ریزی خطی، الگوی کشت فعلی با هدف حداکثرسازی درآمد کشاورزان بهینه‌سازی شد.
مواد و روش‌ها: در این مطالعه برای هر استان به‌صورت جداگانه اطلاعات سطح زیر کشت، عملکرد در واحد سطح، قیمت و هزینه‌ی تولید (1396-1392) بیش از 30 گونه گیاهی مهم جمع‌آوری گردید. برای برآورد آب مصرفی کشاورزان از یک مدل شبیه‌سازی گیاهی (SSM-iCrop2) که برای شبیه‌سازی رشد، عملکرد و بیلان آب مزرعه برای بیش از 30 گونه گیاهی در کل کشور آزمون و برپا (ست‌آپ) شده بود، استفاده گردید. حل مدل ریاضی با استفاده از نرم‌افزار LINGO انجام گردید.
یافته‌ها: نتایج نشان داد که کاهش برداشت آب از 86 به 62 میلیارد متر مکعب در سال بدون تغییر الگوی کشت باعث می‌شود سطح زیر کشت آبی کشور 29 درصد کاهش یابد (از 8409 به 5949 هزار هکتار) و درآمد کشاورزان نیز 30 درصد (از 173 به 121 هزار میلیارد ریال) کاهش پیدا کند. اما بهینه‌سازی الگوی کشت باعث شد که کاهش سطح زیر کشت آبی به 18 درصد تخفیف یابد (از 8409 به 6907 هزار هکتار) و درآمد کشاورزان به میزان 9 درصد (از 173 به 190 هزار میلیارد ریال) افزایش پیدا کند؛ یعنی درحالی‌که برداشت آب 28 درصد کاهش یافته است، می‌توان با بهینه‌سازی الگوی کشت از کاهش درآمد کشاورزان جلوگیری کرد. همچنین الگوی کشت بهینه‌شده، صرفه‌جویی قابل‌توجهی در مصرف کود و انرژی ایجاد می‌کند که در شرایط محدودیت منابع انرژی اهمیت زیادی دارد. مهم‌ترین تغییرات در الگوی کشت بهینه‌شده عبارت بودند از افزایش سطح زیر کشت و تولید سیب‌زمینی و سبزی-صیفی (به ترتیب 104 و 76 درصد بیش از نیاز کشور) که باید صادر شوند و کاهش سطح زیر کشت، تولید و در نتیجه افزایش وابستگی به واردات در گیاهان قندی، جو، ذرت سیلویی و یونجه. در الگوی بهینه‌شده وابستگی بالا (بیش از 50 درصد) به دانه‌های روغنی، ذرت دانه‌ای و کنجاله مثل شرایط فعلی (الگوی کشت فعلی) ادامه خواهد داشت.
نتیجه‌گیری: بهینه‌سازی الگوی کشت این امکان را فراهم می‌سازد که بدون کاهش درآمد کشاورزان کاهش برداشت آب به سطح قابل‌برنامه‌ریزی وزارت نیرو ممکن شود. اما کماکان تا حدودی مقداری کاهش سطح زیرکشت آبی و در نتیجه کاهش در خودکفایی برخی محصولات رخ خواهد داد و باید انتظارات از توان تولید گیاهی کشور معقول‌سازی شده و کاهش یابد.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات


عنوان مقاله [English]

Adaptation to water scarcity in the country's crop production through cropping pattern optimization

نویسندگان [English]

  • Afshin Soltani 1
  • Shahrzad Mirkarimi 2
  • Ramtin Joolaie 3
  • Farshid Eshraghi 3
  • Abdolrahman Mirzaei 4
1 Faculty member, Department of Agriculture, Faculty of Plant Production, Gorgan University of Agricultural Sciences and Natural Resources,
2 Visiting Professor, Department of Agricultural Economics, Faculty of Agricultural Management, Gorgan University of Agricultural Sciences and Natural Resources,
3 Department of Economics, Gorgan University of Agricultural Sciences and Natural Resources
4 PhD student in Agroecology, Department of Agriculture, Faculty of Plant Production, Gorgan University of Agricultural Sciences and Natural Resources,
چکیده [English]

Background and Objective: water over-withdrawal in Iran is like a cancer that has taken root in the country's nature and is making its conditions difficult every day. Therefore, planning and effective measures must be taken at the country level to reduce this over- withdrawal. For this purpose, in the present study, it was assumed that withdrawal water for agriculture in the country would decrease from 86 billion m3 per year to 62 billion m3 per year (the allocable volume of water for agriculture as announced by the Ministry of Energy). Then, using linear programming, the current cropping pattern was optimized with the aim of maximizing farmers' income.
Materials and Methods: In this study, information on the cultivated area, yield per unit area, price and production cost (2013-2017) of more than 30 important plant species was collected separately for each province of the country. To estimate the irrigation water volumes under farmers’ conditions, a crop simulation model (SSM-iCrop2) was used, which has been tested and set up to simulate the growth, yield and field water balance for more than 30 plant species throughout the country. The economic mathematical programming model was solved using LINGO software.
Results: The results showed that reducing water withdrawal from 86 to 62 billion m3 per year without changing the cropping pattern would cause the country's irrigated area to decrease by 29 percent (from 8,409 to 5,949 thousand hectares) and farmers' income would also decrease by 30 percent (from 173 to 121 thousand billion rials). However, the optimization of the cropping pattern resulted in an 18% reduction in the cultivated area (from 8,409 to 6,907 thousand hectares) and an increase in farmers' income by 9% (from 173 to 190 thousand billion rials); that is, while water withdrawal decreased by 28%, farmers' income not only did not decrease but also increased with the optimization of the cropping pattern. The optimized cropping pattern also created significant savings in fertilizer and energy consumption, which is of great importance in conditions of limited energy resources. The most important changes in the optimized cropping pattern were the increase in the cultivated area and production of potato and summer vegetables (104 and 76 percent more than the country's needs, respectively) that must be exported, and the decrease in the cultivated area, production, and consequently increased dependence on imports in sugar-beet, barley, silage corn, and alfalfa. In the optimized cropping pattern, high dependency (more than 50%) to import of oilseeds, grain corn, and meal will continue as in the current conditions (current cropping pattern).
Conclusion: Optimization of the cropping pattern makes it possible to reduce water withdrawal to the level that the Ministry of Energy without reducing farmers' income. However, there will still be some reduction in the area under irrigated cultivation and, as a result, a decrease in the self-sufficiency of some crops. Thus, the expectations of the country's crop production capacity must be rationalized and reduced.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Cropping pattern
  • Adaptation to water scarcity
  • Linear programming
  • Farmers’ income
  • Agriculture
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