The occurrence probability estimation of climatic factors affected on rainfed autumn wheat and barley in agricultural lands of Aq-Qala, Kalale and Gonbad Kavous by spatial analysis of GIS

Document Type : Research Paper


The occurrence probability estimation of climatic factors in drylands of Aq-Qala, Kalale and Gonbad Kavous townships by spatial analysis of GIS in order to development of autumn cereals cropping
Background and adjectives: The climate potential of agricultural lands for crop production is mainly influenced by the amount and distribution of rainfall and crop water requirement. Evaluation of environmental variables and predict climate phenomena can be help to determine suitable areas for rainfed agriculture. In dryland farming, there is a significant correlation between grain yield and soil moisture, that
the soil moisture content can be affected on all phenological processes in crop especially grain filling and it leads a reduce in economic yield. In order to estimate the occurrence probability of climatic factors in agricultural lands of Aq-Qala, Kalale and Gonbad Kavous townships, were used the statistical distribution analysis of Smada software program and spatial analysis of Geographic Information System (GIS).
Materials and methods: This research was carry out in the agricultural lands of Aq-Qala, Kalale and Gonbad Kavous townships in Golestan province, during 2015. Studied environmental variables were as annual, autumn, spring and May precipitations, optimum temperature of germination, suitable temperature in heading stage and suitable temperature in grain filling stage. In this research, the occurrence possibility of these climate variables were predicted in the return period of 25 years and at 95% probability level, using Distrib 2.0 of Smada software. Then map the spatial distribution of each of the climatic variables in the 95% probability level was prepared using various methods of geostatistical and interpolation methods and classified in GIS media. The performance criteria for evaluation were Mean Absolute Error (MAE), Mean Bias Error (MBE), Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) and Cross Validation method.
Results: The results of occurrences probability of climatic variables such as annual, spring and May precipitations, and temperatures showed that these variables are suitable for rainfed cultivation of wheat and barley in these townships. But, the autumn precipitation can be a limiting factor for some studied areas, in the return period of 25 years and at the 95% probability level.
Conclusion: Despite supplying water requirements of wheat and barley in autumn season in the extensive areas of studied region, there is limitation in the north and northeast lands of Gonbad Kavous township. This zone covers about 7.40 % of the total area with 68.76-80 mm rainfall that it is classified to semi-suitable zone. The results of this research can be used in agricultural planning and future management of dryland farming in Golestan province.
Keywords: Occurrence possibility, Geostatistical methods, rainfed wheat and barley, Smada.


Main Subjects

1. Agriculture Organization of Golestan. 2013. Statistics and Information Office.
2.Arokhi, S., Hejam, S., and Lotfi, A. 2009. Efficiency of geostatistical methods in favorable areas for wheat cultivation using geographical information system (Case study: Tehran province). Proc. 18th Geomatic Conf., 5-6 May, Tehran. (In Persian)
3.Bertolini, M., Braglia, M., and Carmignani, G. 2006. Application of the AHP methodology in making proposal for a public work contract.  Int. J. Proj. Manag. 24: 5. 422-430.
4.Bhagat, R.M., Singh, S., Sood, C., Rana, R.S., Kalia, V., Pradha, S., Immerzeel, W., and Shrestha, B. 2009. Land suitability analysis for cereal production in Himachal Pradesh (India) using Geographical Information System. J. Ind. Soc. Remote Sens. 37: 233-240.
5.Cheng, K., Lin, Sh., and Liou, J. 2008. Rain-gauge network evaluation and augmentation using geostatistics. Hydrol. Proc. 22: 14. 2554-2564.
6.Carlson, R.E., and Foley, T.A. 1991. The parameter R2 in multiquadric interpolation. Comp. Mathematic App. 21: 29-42.
7.Diodato, N., and Ceccarell, I.M. 2005. Interpolation processes using multivariate geostatistics for mapping of climatological precipitation mean in the Sannio Mountains (southern Italy). Earth Surface Proc. Landforms. 30: 3. 259-268.
8.Descroix, L. Nouvelot, J.F., Estrada, J., and Lebal T. 2001. Complementarily and convergence of rainfall regionalization processes: application to an endoergic basin of Northern Mexico. Revue Des Sciences De L'Eau. 14: 3. 281-305.  
9.Ehteramian, K., Mohamadnia Gharaei, S., Motamedi, M., Gharaei S., Rafiei, M., and Zabol Abbasi, F. 2007. Zoning of climatic capability for rainfed wheat cropping in North Khorasan. J. Geo. Sci. 7: 8. 9-34. (In Persian)
10.Eyni, H., Sadeghi, S., and Hosseinzadeh, R. 2012. Zoning topoclimatic potentials for rainfed wheat cultivation in Kermanshah province. J. Geo. Reg. Develop. 19: 21-45 (In Persian)
11.Feizizadeh, B., Ebdali, H., Rezaei-Banafshe, M., and Mohammadi, G. 2012. Zoning of suitable area to rainfed wheat in the Azerbaijan province by geospatial analysis of GIS. Agron. J. (Pajouhesh and Sazandegi). 96: 75-91. (In Persian)
 12.Hasani Pak, A.A. 2007. Geostatistics. University of Tehran Press. 314 p. (In Persian)
13.Kamali, G. 1997. Agroclimatology study of lands potential for dry farming in west of the country, with emphasis on wheat. Ph.D. Thesis, Islamic Azad University of Science and Research Branch of Tehran. 152 p. (In Persian)
14.Kamali, Gh.A., Momen Zadeh, H., and Vazifeh Doust, M. 2011. Assessment of changes in biomass and grain yield in drought and wet periods-of MODIS satellite data in Isfahan. J. Agric. Ecol. 3: 2. 181-190. (In Persian)
15.Kazemi, H., Tahmasebi Sarvestani, Z., Kamkar, B., Shataei, Sh., and Sadeghi, S. 2015. Ecological zoning for wheat production at province scale using geographical information system. Adv. Plants Agric. Res. 2: 1. 1-7.
16.Kazemi, H., Sadeghi, S., and Akinci, H. 2016. Developing a land evaluation model for faba bean cultivation using geographic information system and multi-criteria analysis (A case study: Gonbad-Kavous region, Iran). Ecol. Indicat. 63: 37-47.
17.Khodabandeh, N. 1996. Cereals. University of Tehran Press. 537p. (In Persian)
18.Marofi, S., Gol-Mohamadi, G., Mohamadi, K., and Zare Abyane, H. 2009. Evaluation geostatistical estimation of the spatial distribution of rainfall in the Hamedan province in GIS. J. Soil Water. 1: 2. 1-17. (In Persian)
19.Mahdian, M.H. 2006. The use of geostatistics in soil science. Proceedings of the Conference on Soil, Sustainability and Environment, University of Tehran. 10 p. (In Persian)
20.Rasoli, A.A., Ghasemi Golazani, K., and Sobhani, B. 2005. The role of precipitation and height to determine suitable areas for rainfed wheat planting using GIS (Case study: Ardabil province). 5: 183-200. (In Persian)
21.Sari Saraf, B., Bazgir, S., and Mohammadi, G. 2009. Zoning of climatic potential for rainfed wheat cropping in West Azerbaijan province. Geo. Develop. 13: 5-26. (In Persian).
22.Sarmadnia, G., and Kocheki, A. 1989. Physiological aspects of dryland farming. Jehad Daneshgahi Press of Mashhad. 423p. (In Persian)
23.Samanta, S., Pal, B., and Pal, D.K. 2011. Land suitability analysis for rice cultivation based on multicriteria ecological suitability of Henan province based on GIS. Agricultural Silences in China. 9: 583-592.
24.Sobhani, B. 2005. Agroclimatic zoning of Ardabil province using satilate images in GIS media. PhD Thesis in Natural Geography, Tabriz University. (In Persian)
25.Sys, I., Van-Ranst, E., and Debveye J. 1991. Land evaluation. Part 1: principles in land evaluation and crop production calculations. General administration for development cooperation. Agricultural Publications, Brussels, Belgium, 15p.
26.Wang, D., Li, C., Song, X., Wang, J., Yang, X., Huang, W., Wang, J., and  Zhou, J. 2011. Assessment of land suitability potentials for selecting winter wheat cultivation areas in Beijing, China, using RS and GIS. Agric. Sci.  China. 10: 9. 1419-1430.
27.Webster, R., and Oliver, M.A. 2000. Geostatistics for Environmental Scientists. Wiley Press.