نوع مقاله : مقاله کامل علمی- پژوهشی
نویسندگان
1 دانشگاه علوم کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی گرگان
2 دانشیار گروه زراعت، دانشگاه علوم کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی گرگان، ایران
3 استاد گروه زراعت، دانشگاه علوم کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی گرگان، ایران
4 استاد داشکده کشاورزی گرگاندانشیار گروه زراعت، دانشگاه علوم کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی گرگان، ایران
چکیده
کلیدواژه‌ها
موضوعات
عنوان مقاله [English]
نویسندگان [English]
Background and objectives: The canola plant (Brassica napus L.), containing 40 to 44 percent oil, is considered one of the most important edible oilseeds and is the third most significant annual oilseed crop in the world after soybean and oil palm. The global demand for food is rapidly increasing due to the growing population. This demand is expected to rise by 60 percent by the year 2050, which poses a significant challenge, especially in the context of climate change. Human activities since the industrialization era have led to an increase in greenhouse gas emissions, which are expected to alter regional rainfall patterns and temperatures. The most critical feature of global climate change is the significant increase in temperature and uneven distribution of precipitation, which are limiting factors for sustainable development. The ultimate goal of assessing climate change risks is to identify adaptation strategies to achieve sustainable development in a specific region. Adaptation strategies vary depending on agricultural systems, regions, and climate change scenarios. The aim of this study is to examine adaptation strategies to enhance drought resistance in rapeseed plants concerning future climate conditions in the country.
Materials and methods: The present study aims to predict the impact of climate change on the growth and development of rainfed canola in Iran using two general circulation models, HadGEM2-ES and IPSL-CM5A-MR, derived from the CMIP5 project under two emission scenarios, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, as reported in the fifth assessment report of the IPCC for the future period from 2040 to 2069. The downscaling of climatic parameters generating weather data was conducted using climate scenario generation tools within the AgMIP project and implemented in R software. After simulating the future climate and producing the necessary parameters (minimum temperature, maximum temperature, precipitation, and solar radiation), the growth and development simulation of rainfed canola was carried out using the SSM-iCrop2 model under current and future climate conditions. Additionally, the results of the growth and development simulation of rainfed canola under future climatic conditions in Iran were evaluated with increased drought resistance.
Results: The results indicated that the average temperature during the canola growing season in the future is expected to increase by an average of 2.3 degrees Celsius for the RCP4.5 emission scenario and by 3.1 degrees Celsius for the RCP8.5 scenario compared to current conditions. Additionally, the results showed that the distribution of precipitation among the growth seasons would vary between the two models. The simulation results under climate change for both RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios revealed that, with the increase in average temperature, the length of the growing season would decrease in both models studied. However, it is predicted that water productivity will increase under both emission scenarios. It is anticipated that the average yield of canola in the country in its main cultivation areas will increase by 5% and 8% under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, respectively, compared to current conditions. By implementing adaptation strategies to enhance drought resistance, it is expected that under both RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, the average yield changes will increase by 8% and 9%, respectively, compared to a future without adaptation strategies.
Conclusion: The results of this study indicate that, on average, the yield in most of the main canola cultivation areas in the country is expected to increase under both emission scenarios. By implementing adaptation strategies to enhance drought resistance in the future climate, it is predicted that the average yield will increase compared to a future without adaptation strategies.
کلیدواژه‌ها [English]
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